Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.319097 2.463788 2.617078 2.792294 2.987938 3.200736 3.451152
2025-05-04 2.137244 2.339933 2.566030 2.839608 3.165406 3.545943 4.031741
2025-05-11 1.985744 2.216383 2.482459 2.817057 3.234046 3.747426 4.445843
2025-05-18 1.873698 2.122350 2.416768 2.798517 3.292304 3.928027 4.843138
2025-05-25 1.779671 2.039757 2.354264 2.772507 3.330824 4.078258 5.210879
2025-06-01 1.700102 1.967939 2.297643 2.745755 3.360780 4.213736 5.570072
2025-06-08 1.643288 1.920001 2.266444 2.747314 3.425582 4.400419 6.030794
2025-06-15 1.604186 1.891477 2.257205 2.775633 3.527546 4.649372 6.631469
2025-06-22 1.542007 1.829527 2.199764 2.732334 3.520177 4.727917 6.951667
2025-06-29 1.483907 1.770057 2.142199 2.684409 3.500669 4.782934 7.235994
2025-07-06 1.425905 1.708226 2.078338 2.623248 3.455489 4.789905 7.428063
2025-07-13 1.405247 1.695095 2.079978 2.656284 3.557537 5.052928 8.181977
2025-07-20 1.389589 1.688502 2.090899 2.704548 3.689544 5.388395 9.189828
2025-07-27 1.373101 1.679938 2.098376 2.747735 3.816832 5.733529 10.335510
2025-08-03 1.338070 1.644285 2.065367 2.726304 3.832859 5.869327 11.008083
2025-08-10 1.306510 1.612271 2.036105 2.708742 3.853549 6.016226 11.761673
2025-08-17 1.274884 1.579047 2.003645 2.684100 3.859384 6.133139 12.474316
2025-08-24 1.244916 1.547183 1.971891 2.658749 3.861652 6.242524 13.209870
2025-08-31 1.224015 1.527498 1.957308 2.660226 3.912599 6.463789 14.416726
2025-09-07 1.211008 1.518601 1.958324 2.687063 4.012605 6.810340 16.277006
2025-09-14 1.181052 1.484357 1.919834 2.646027 3.979921 6.843732 16.941616
2025-09-21 1.151354 1.449755 1.879755 2.600581 3.935665 6.844358 17.480598
2025-09-28 1.119737 1.411656 1.833307 2.542542 3.863289 6.768597 17.655236